News :: Patzek's Coal Peak Stirs Controversy

In August, PGE Chairman Tad Patzek and Dr. Gregory Croft of the University of California at Berkeley, published a controversial study in Energy, "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis." This study takes issue with the position that there is a comfortable supply of coal to meet American energy needs for one hundred years or more. Patzek and Croft, using the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data (Hubbert's Peak) and applying it to coal production, take the view that coal production is currently peaking. National Geographic took the discussion to a broader forum when they covered Patzek's article in, "Mining the Truth on Coal Supplies" in their September issue. Patzek stated in Energy, " The most important conclusion of this paper is that the peak of global coal production from the existing coalfields is imminent, and coal production from these areas will fall by 50% in the next 40 years. The CO2 emissions from burning this coal will also decline by 50%. Thus, current focus on carbon capture and geological sequestration may be misplaced. Instead, the global community should be devoting its attention to conservation and increasing efficiency of electrical power generation from coal." The discussion is certain to continue.